When the global economic outlook is uncertain, the second quarter of China's macro economy has brought the world a surprise: gross domestic product growth of 7.9% year-on-year, bottoming out clearly.Analysts generally will be the turnaround to the Chinese government since the fourth quarter of last year launched a massive economic stimulus plan, and expect the second half of the Chinese economy will continue to maintain rapid growth momentum.
Morgan Stanley's chief economist for greater China's wang said in an interview, China's second quarter GDP growth means 19% annualized quarter-on-quarter growth, the growth of more than many people expected.He thinks that the main reason is the government continue to stimulate economic growth policy situation, make trillions of fiscal stimulus and the real effect of expansionary monetary and credit policy can be accelerated to achieve.
Over the years, China's economy is mainly composed of foreign trade, investment, and a result, the "troika", but since the fourth quarter of 2008, by the American financial crisis caused the global economic recession led to China's export, ended five years of double-digit economic growth.Annual growth rate dropped to 9% last year, dropped to 6.8% in the fourth quarter, and growth continued to slow in the first quarter of this year, down to the lowest quarter growth of 6.1% in 10 years.
Under the condition of the external environment can not control, the Chinese government have issued the stimulus package, by trying to stimulate investment and consumption both carriage, to support China's economic development.These policies include two years investment in four trillion, the top ten industrial revitalization planning, structural tax cuts, consumer subsidies, etc.
Recent 2009 years, according to data from the annual report of China's economic reverse the downward trend in the seven consecutive quarter of, access to pick up, walked out of a people is often used to represent the smile curve.In the second quarter economic growth rate of 7.9%, increased by 1.8% month-on-month.
Three of the GDP growth of demand in the first half of the year, the highest investment contribution, pulling GDP growth of 6.2%.The second is the final consumption, increase GDP growth of 3.8%.And net exports 2.9% GDP growth.
Other indicators also show a positive trend.Housing and stock market fast recovery, electricity generation began to positive growth, rising manufacturing purchasing managers' index, consumption continued to maintain rapid growth, industrial added value to return to double-digit growth, foreign direct investment to speed up, price index decline slowed, fiscal revenue began to positive growth, exports decline narrowed, etc.
For many rebound phenomenon, galaxy securities economist zuo xiaolei believe that growth is main or investment support, this is obvious, and the policy effect.Government investment way of economic growth are correct, it could quickly stable growth and restore confidence.
Wang think the policy is different, after the crisis response strength and speed difference is very big, leading to the respective in the post-crisis recovery pattern is different, China happens to be a proper example.The Chinese government positive policy reaction will be China's "strong balance sheets" into a "beautiful profit", which makes China different from the financial system to crash or due to poor fiscal and external balance of payments to take strong fiscal or monetary stimulus policies of the country.
Evaluation policy, he says, success requires the comparison of reality, the reality is that China does not have an economic depression, no large business failures and a large number of unemployed, it is proved that policy is a success.
Migrant workers employment has always been the focus of attention at home and abroad.National statistics bureau spokesman li xiaochao said that at the end of the second quarter, the number of migrant rural labor than in the first quarter rose by 3.78 million, an increase of 2.6%.In the first half of 2009 the employment pressure significantly decreased compared with the second half of 2008.
Wang said China's rapid growth has boosted the confidence of the people.Recovery in China's enterprises and industry resource prices rise, beneficial to the recovery of resource exporters.At the same time, before the financial crisis, the Chinese government is committed to maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability, is advantageous to the international and domestic financial stability.
International organizations are also a positive view on China's economic development prospects, have higher expectations of China's economic growth in 2009.Foreign media also recognized China's stimulus policies at the same time, the German "focus" magazine published in June the article points out that in fighting with the financial crisis, a socialist China is to become the world's economists in the eyes of a "successful model".
Handed over a satisfactory answer in China in the first half of the year, and for the second half of the economic trends in China, most experts are optimistic.Wang said, considering the achievements of the first half of China's economy will continue in the rest of this year a few months a gradual, steady recovery, China's economy this year "protect eight" no problem, and has a "rush nine" power.
And says jerry Lou, China strategist at Morgan Stanley, executive director and Hong Kong, China's economy in the second half of the growth of state have been confirmed, as long as the Chinese government to keep the policy stability, the second half of the year are less likely to occur repeatedly.
Experts generally believe that, maintain the stability of the current policy is very important.
"I don't recommend early adjust current policy, because there are uncertainties, exports and private investment is still very weak, policy support is needed.Before the real economy has not fully recovered, early to change a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy could lead to a double-dip downside risks."Wang said.
"If out of ten, I will give the Chinese government in response to the crisis measures play nine points."Wang said.
Experts believe that the other points in the future, how to achieve is the key.Chinese government need to be more flexible and more forceful measures to adjust China's model of economic development, maintain stable economic growth, manages the government promised to "expanding domestic demand, sustaining economic growth, structural adjustment, promote people's livelihood" organic combination.(source: xinhua)
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